An interactive scenario model that pressure tests an $80M residential HVAC, plumbing, and electrical platform against four growth levers, a binding labor headwind, four time horizons, and three presets. TurnPoint Services portfolio company, Midwest. Public-data subject.
Lead with membership, finance with tuck-ins, expand into light commercial, amplify with AI. Move the sliders to see how each lever, applied at different intensities, closes the $40M gap from $80M to $120M.
Slide the levers below to see the bridge from $80M base to $120M target.
EBITDA fall-through varies by lever. Membership and AI carry the highest contribution margins.
Drive household penetration toward 35 to 40%. Members are 2 to 4x more likely to use the same company for replacement, generate roughly $2 of pull-through per $1 of contract, and retain at 70 to 85% versus 20 to 30% for one-time customers.
Membership bases are valued at 2 to 3x ARR. Champions Group's 150,000-member program drove its $2.5B sale to Blackstone (18.5x, Feb 2026). Multi-trade bundling creates a moat single-trade competitors cannot replicate.
Disciplined entry into sub-20-ton commercial (medical offices, strip retail, restaurants, small office). Commercial HVAC consolidation is early stage, the next acquisition frontier. Residential tech skills transfer; commercial service runs 35 to 50% gross with 3 to 5x ticket sizes.
A 10-unit strip mall equals 20 to 30 residential agreements in recurring value. KC sub-20-ton segment is fragmented and underserved.
Three to five tuck-ins of $4M to $8M family-owned shops at 3 to 6x EBITDA, rolled into a platform valued at 12 to 18.5x. 29,000+ private HVAC firms exist nationally, founder-led, consolidation only midway. KC skews to retirement-age founders.
Recent platform comps: Blackstone / Champions $2.5B at 18.5x. Goldman / Sila $1.7B at 17x. Altas / Redwood $1.1B at 17x. PE add-on activity +88% YoY in H1 2025.
Highest ROI: AI call answering (Sameday reports 92% booking; 27% of inbound calls go unanswered at typical shops; each missed call worth $350 to $14,000), dispatch optimization (15 to 20% more jobs per day), and automated rehash on unsold estimates.
Pricing levers compound: flat-rate moved one operator's average ticket from $180 to $400. Good / Better / Best tiering adds ~30% to ticket. ServiceTitan is the standard ($250 to $500 per tech per month).
The widest gaps are also the most actionable: penetration, booking rate, ticket size.
Mix shift toward membership, electrical, and IAQ raises blended margin without raising prices.
Subject column is estimated where public data does not exist. "TBD" beats fabrication.
| KPI | Industry | Best-in-Class | Subject (est.) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue per technician PLAYBOOK | $150K to $250K | $350K to $450K | ~$350K | At benchmark; gap to best |
| Average repair ticket PLAYBOOK | $350 to $450 | $650+ | TBD | $200+ per ticket of upside |
| Average replacement ticket PLAYBOOK | $11,500 to $14,100 | $15,000+ | TBD | $1K to $3K per replacement |
| Membership attachment PLAYBOOK | 20 to 30% | 60%+ | ~30% | Largest single revenue lever |
| Membership renewal PLAYBOOK MEMO | 60 to 70% | 85 to 90% | TBD | Each point compounds |
| Booking rate, inbound PLAYBOOK | 50 to 60% | 75 to 85% | TBD | Major revenue leakage |
| Technician utilization PLAYBOOK | 65 to 70% | 80 to 85% | TBD | 15 points of capacity upside |
| Customer acquisition cost PLAYBOOK | $250 to $380 | $75 to $150 | TBD | Marketing efficiency gap |
| Callback rate PLAYBOOK | 5 to 8% | Under 3% | TBD | Quality and training proxy |
| EBITDA margin at $100M scale PLAYBOOK MEMO | 3% industry | 17 to 25% net | ~13% | 4 to 10 points to target |
| Commercial revenue mix ANTHONY | 15 to 25% | 30 to 40% | 2% | Nearly 100% residential |
Dispatch and sales coaching lead. Voice and marketing AI compound through year three.
Every tool below has documented results from a named operator. Click any card to expand.
$490B home services market (HVAC $156B, plumbing $170B, electrical $164B). HVAC services CAGR 5.9 to 7.5%. HVAC market grows from $216B in 2024 to $390B by 2033.
Median owner-occupied home age reached 41 years in 2023, up from 31 in 2005. 48% of U.S. housing stock was built before 1980.
Manufacturing ban Jan 1, 2025; install deadline Jan 1, 2026. A2L systems cost 10 to 15% more. R-454B cylinders rose from $345 in 2021 to over $2,000 in 2025.
Heat pump share of residential cooling grew 33% to 47% over the decade, yet under 20% of households use one. IRA provides up to $2,000 per year in credits, catalyzing $8.8B in projects in July 2024 alone.
With rates at 6 to 6.5%, owners are spending on upgrades not moves. 87% of millennial homeowners have a pending repair; 84% have postponed it.
PE participation in HVAC nearly tripled, 8% to 23% of deals between 2023 and 2024. Direct reflection of recurring-revenue economics.
HVAC sits at the very end of the automation queue (2040 to 2050+). Goldman: physical and outdoor repair work is unlikely to be affected by current AI. BLS classifies HVAC technicians as both low AI exposure and low automation risk.
Diagnostic and repair work happens at the unit. AI accelerates the support stack (calls, dispatch, follow-up, marketing) without displacing the technician. Operators capture the AI productivity gain without absorbing the labor displacement risk.
110,000 HVAC positions unfilled, projected 300,000+ by 2031. Retire-to-replace ratio 5:2. Nearly 30% of technicians are over 55. This is the binding constraint on organic growth.
$30K to $120K to replace; an unfilled position costs roughly $250K per year in lost revenue. Turnover runs 20 to 30% versus sub-15% best-in-class.
Starts moderated from a 1.6M peak in 2021 to roughly 1.36M in 2025. Favors incumbent operators with installed-base relationships.
Tuck-in multiples rose from 3-5x to 3-6x as PE capital floods. Arbitrage to platform multiples (12-18.5x) remains wide, but the entry floor is climbing.
Disciplined tuck-in pricing is the difference between value creation and overpaying.
Recent platform comps. Blackstone / Champions $2.5B at 18.5x (Feb 2026). Goldman / Sila $1.7B at 17x. Altas / Redwood $1.1B at 17x. 29,000+ private HVAC firms exist; consolidation is only midway through its cycle.
The integration template available to any tuck-in inside the platform.
Revenue grew roughly 10x. Headcount from 160 to 2,000 between 2016 and 2020.
Circa $1B, January 2021. EBITDA roughly doubled within two years.
17+ brands across 13 states, 720+ technicians, 290,000 service jobs per year. Center of Excellence model.
What this static dashboard becomes once wired into ServiceTitan, HRIS, marketing systems, and public macro feeds with AI/ML on top.
Data sources. All figures are built from publicly available material. No internal company data was used. Each chart, table, and lever traces to one or more of the four primary sources tagged inline:
AI use vs. human judgment. AI (Claude, Claude Code) assisted with research synthesis, first-draft modeling, and structural cleanup. Lever sizing, sequencing, scenario logic, integration framework, and the Renovo cautionary tale are operator judgment. Numbers are point estimates that should be read as ranges.
Honesty on subject estimates. Revenue, headcount, fleet, members, and geography are public. Subject EBITDA margin, current penetration, utilization, booking rate, and ticket size are estimated from platform peers and tagged as such throughout. Where data is unavailable, the table shows "TBD" rather than fabricating a number.
Internal data would sharpen every figure. Imagine this with inside access.
Independent, self-initiated analysis by Dustin Fusillo. Public data only. 5-25-26.